All in the same week. I blame Rutherford B. Hayes.
Weather Risk is a forecasting service for investors, traders and business that has a remarkable history. They accurately predicted major storms with a degree of accuracy that the Weather Channel only dreams of. For the last two years they have bucked conventional wisdom, while mocking MSW (Mainstream Weather) like we all mock MSM (Mainstream Media) for their inaccuracies and laziness.
Last winter these guys accurately predicted major snowstorms that hadn’t even hit the radar of the local weather guys and the Weather Channel. They don’t just use the National Weather Service models, but also the European models, which unlike many things European, appear to be highly accurate.
Weather Risk has been saying that the storm will track further inland, to the west for several days while MSW has been saying Irene was going to veer to the east, but as the event draws closer MSW is now adjusting their predictions to more closely mirror Weather Risk.
What does Weather Risk have to say about Hurricane Irene? Link.
It should be noted that at 220 pm the 12z Thursday afternoon run of the European model has now come out and it is even more stunning in its ferocity with regard to hurricane Irene then the last several runs. The model takes hurricane Irene as a category 4 hurricane showing a MSLP around 940mb as it makes landfall in Morehead City then moves over Elizabeth City –losing very little strength because of low swamplands over Eastern North Carolina tracks — then tracks over Norfolk Virginia. From there Irene bends NNE tracking over Wallops island / ocean City MD and making another landfall at Cape May New Jersey as a category 2 hurricane and eventually passing over NYC as a category 1 hurricane on Sunday afternoon.
This is a dangerous and historic track far exceeding the intensity of any hurricane in Hampton roads in the last 100 years. Hurricane Donna did not pass directly over Hampton roads in 1960 but instead tracked over Nags head and the northern outer banks of North Carolina and then headed NNE paralleling the East coast. The track here is similar but its shift to the west by 50 miles which is the European Model has Irene crossing through Hampton roads and the lower portion of the Chesapeake Bay and the lower Virginia eastern shore.
There is No other word to describe the European model depiction of this hurricane for Northeast North Carolina southeastern Virginia ….the central and lower portions of the Chessy Bay and the lower Delmarva as anything short of catastrophic. The European model implies sustained hurricane force winds as far west as Richmond and the European model is extremely wet showing large areas of excessively heavy rains well to the Western Richmond greater than 5 inches. The European model track brings in a large area of Hurricane conditions that exceeds what was seen by Isabel …by a large margin.
For the time bring I am NOT going to go 100% with the European solutions….
Prepare, my East Coast friends. This sounds serious.
P. S. Weather Risk’s only shortcoming seems to be a tenuous grasp of the English language. I did some corrections without notation and I am nobody to point out minor grammatical errors, as my entire writing history is rife with them, but WXRisk needs an editor.
Speaking of grammar and punctuation, I saw this yesterday in some comments area somewhere and I loved it.
Grammar saves lives. Compare and contrast…
Let’s eat Grandma.
Let’s eat, Grandma.
That little comma saved Grandma’s life.